Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban
Hungary has increasingly courted and won favor with Russia, while rejecting the core values of the European Union
Budapest, Hungary 18 Aug 2014 – As the West holds its breath waiting to see if Russia will intervene in Ukraine, there is one country looking to Moscow for inspiration: Hungary.
In a speech in late July, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said he wanted to turn Hungary into an “illiberal state” and used Russia as a model example.
The speech proved highly controversial, grabbing international headlines and calls by Hungary’s opposition groups for the European Union, of which Hungary is a member, to monitor the country’s reforms.
“Hungary has gone so far as to actually reject explicitly by the prime minister the very values that guide the European Union and NATO. This has never happened before, this is a unique event,” said Charles Gati, a professor of European and Eurasian studies at John Hopkins University.
The reference to looking towards Russia, as well as other countries Orban mentioned including China, Turkey and India, were regarding economic models.
However, Russia’s influence over Hungary goes far beyond economics.
“Putin serves as a role model for him in the sense that Putin is … the frontman of the ideological fights against Western Europe and Western interests.”
Warm relations
Hungary’s move towards Russia has been in the works for years – and it seems Russia has taken note. Last year, Vladimir Putin sent a letter congratulating Orban on his birthday and thanking the prime minister for greatly strengthening relations with Russia, according to Hungary’s state news agency MTI.
In January, Russia agreed on a controversial deal to loan Hungary up to $13.5bn to build two reactors at a nuclear power plant in the country’s south. It will be the largest construction project in Hungary since the end of communism more than 20 years ago.
In early July, Orban said Hungary would go ahead with the South Stream pipeline project that would import natural gas from Russia through a route that would bypass Ukraine.
Concerns exist also that the nuclear deal will increase dependency on Russia, which is already Hungary’s main supplier of natural gas and oil.
European Parliament member Benedek Javor, who is part of a small leftist opposition group in Hungary, asked the EU to investigate the deal over whether it broke the law.
He said the Ukrainian crisis, sparked by then-president Viktor Yanukovich sacrificing an EU trade deal for closer ties to Russia, showed the risk of allowing Moscow greater influence over Hungary.
“To link Hungary’s economy stronger and stronger to Russia which is in a trade war with … the European Union and in a diplomatic conflict with the European Union, I think it’s highly dangerous and highly risky,” Javor said.
What’s in it for Russia?
But what does Russia get out of a relationship with a relatively small country such as Hungary?
“The main reason for Russia’s interest … is to weaken the European Union,” John Hopkins University professor Gati said. “It is doing so … primarily by several countries dependence on Russian energy.”
Peter Kreko, director for the political consultancy firm Political Capital Institute, said focusing on Hungary is one of the best ways to undermine the EU because Orban has taken an antagonistic approach to the supranational government.
He added, however, that previous leaders have also tried to get closer to Russia. “Putin feels that the European Union is in a very weak position,” Kreko said.
Hungary is not the only EU member-state to have maintained ties to Russia during the Ukrainian crisis. Austria also said it will go along with the South Stream gas pipeline project, while Germany, where exports to Russia in 2013 equated to almost $50bn, avoided placing tough sanctions on Moscow before the Malaysian Airlines M-17 downing in eastern Ukraine.
Meanwhile, France said it plans to go through with the delivery of a mistral warship to Russia in a deal worth $1.6bn.
But so far, only Hungary has been accused of a democratic backslide. Last year, the European Parliament adopted a non-binding resolution stating that Hungary was undermining the independence of its own judiciary and was rushing through legislation.
Uptick in nationalism
There are also signs that Orban is mimicking Putin’s strategies, such as removing his limits on power and increasing nationalist rhetoric.
In Orban’s July speech, he discussed how “paid political activists” working for NGOs with foreign funding were preventing reforms in the country; a month earlier, Hungarian authorities raided the offices of NGOs receiving grants from Norway over accusations thay they are politically biased.
This is similar to when Putin took aim at NGOs by introducing a law that requires organizations using funding from abroad to register as “foreign agents”.
In May, Orban called for autonomy of ethnic Hungarians in western Ukraine, while in the east rebels allegedly backed by Russia were also demanding autonomy from Kiev.
According to MP Javor, other EU member states could follow Hungary’s footsteps if the EU does not act.
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